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Aston Thriller

Sep 29, 2017 by

Aston Thriller

It was an unlucky week 1 of Strictly with a score of ’15 or less’ looking on the cards after Gemma was scored a harsh looking 20 for her opening CCC, and Shirley, as predicted, proving herself a tougher scorer compared to Len.

It was Bruno who scuppered things by giving very generous 5s to Brian for his tango and Ruth for her waltz, so they both totalled 16. Rev Coles (17) probably shouldn’t have been given more than 15 either for his comical CCC.

Totting up the week 1 points reveals Bruno as being the most generous scoring judge. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues series long. This week’s songs and dances are as follows:

Alexandra & Gorka – Paso Doble to ‘Ven a Bailar by Jennifer Lopez
Charlotte & Brendan – Cha Cha to Sugar by Maroon 5
Chizzy & Pasha – Foxtrot to I’m A Woman from ‘Smokey Joe’s Café’
Debbie & Giovanni – Viennese Waltz to She’s Always A Woman by Billy Joel
Gemma & Aljaz – Waltz to Un Giorno Per Noi (A Time For Us) by Josh Groban
Mollie & AJ – Tango to Addicted To Love by Tina Turner
Ruth & Anton – Charleston to The Charleston by Bob Wilson and his Varsity Rhythm Boys
Susan & Kevin – Charleston to If You Knew Susie by Enoch Light and The Charleston City All-Stars
Aston & Janette – Salsa to Despacito by Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber
Brian & Amy – Cha Cha to Shake Your Groove Thing by Peaches and Herb
Davood & Nadiya – Quickstep to Last Nite by The Strokes
Joe & Katya – Tango to Castle On The Hill by Ed Sheeran
Jonnie & Oti – Jive to Johnny B. Goode by Chuck Berry
Rev Coles & Dianne – American Smooth to Love Really Hurts Without You by Billy Ocean
Simon & Karen – Waltz to You’ll Never Walk Alone by Rodgers and Hammerstein

And these are the scores going into week 2:

 

 

 

 

 

 

In terms of the Outright, Debbie was advised to subscribers at 25-1 e/w and 12-1 to be Top Female pre-lives. She currently trades at a general 6-1 on the Outright and 3-1 to be Top Female after her excellent week 1 paso. She might drift slightly from this point but she looks capable of producing competent routines throughout the weeks to come, which should keep her in the mix at the top of the betting market, and she looks a live contender for the glitterball.

It potentially reinforces the message to viewers that he has an unfair advantage given his dance background

It is interesting they gave Aston the week 1 pimp slot and highest score of the night which can be something of a curse. And it appears as if TPTB want to keep him firmly at the top with salsa being Janette’s specialty and Aston looking very good in training this week.

One wonders if they are intentionally setting the bar very high for him, so he ends up plateauing later in the series while others improve and are perceived to catch him up. It also potentially reinforces the message to viewers that he has an unfair advantage given his dance background.

They are keeping Alex B in a slower lane for now, with a paso to follow up her foxtrot, and a song that isn’t from the traditional paso book. There does look room for her price to shorten further in the Outright in the coming weeks but Aston looks like consolidating his favourite status tomorrow night.

Mollie (23) was something of a disappointment last Saturday though Jive is a tough assignment in week 1 and Joe (29) seemed to be quite generously scored in comparison. There is a clear window there for Mollie to improve over the weeks and that also applies to Gemma.

Gemma showed promise dancing CCC and her and Aljaz have the makings of a popular partnership. Both Mollie and Gemma’s scores should improve significantly tomorrow night as their training for tango and waltz respectively has looked pretty decent this week.

Merseyside born and lifelong LFC fan Simon has club anthem ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ for his waltz which could help generate a strong regional vote for him

As for the first elimination, subscribers were advised Brian at 12-1 pre-lives and he now trades as 5-2 joint favourite, along with Simon. He has CCC and his partner Amy has promised they have a couple of tricks up there sleeve tomorrow night.

Susan looks like having a comedy Charleston and Rev Coles entertains every time he dances so it’s going to be tough for Brian to grab the comedy vote unless Amy has some ingenious choreo lined up.

Merseyside born and lifelong LFC fan Simon has club anthem ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ for his waltz which could help generate a strong regional vote for him.

Not only that but in training his waltz has been looking decent with plenty of content for the judges to credit him for, and which could potentially help him rise up the leaderboard. He performed 4th last week and Brian 2nd so both will also be hoping for later slots tomorrow night.

Ruth, Susan and Rev Coles have the chance to escape the bottom 2 courtesy of strong public votes which leaves Chizzy and Charlotte looking potentially vulnerable.

Chizzy has a foxtrot which could well be quite forgettable on the night and not especially strong based on training footage but you wonder whether the judges will inflate her score to try and ensure her safety. Charlotte has the difficult CCC and on all known evidence she looks like struggling.

Brian is almost definitely a goner if he ends up in the dance-off but if he miraculously escapes Charlotte could be in jeopardy.

Chizzy and Simon both have ballroom routines to reprise that could well be rated higher than her CCC if either of these two end up being her dance-off opponent, based on the assumption celebs will only be able to reprise their week 2 dance in the dance-off, not week 1 due to wardrobe and set constraints.

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4 Comments

  1. James

    Hi Rob. I think Brendan may have made a tactical error by choosing to perform a ballroom dance in week 1 and a Latin dance in week 2. Here is how he has performed on the last nine occasions he has performed Latin on the show.

    S12, week 8 – Samba, bottom two, survived
    S12, week 10 – Rumba, bottom two, eliminated
    S13, week 2 – Salsa, safe
    S13, week 4 – Paso, bottom two, survived
    S13, week 6 – Charleston, bottom two, eliminated
    S14, week 1 – Cha Cha, no vote
    S14, week 2 – Salsa, bottom two, survived
    S14, week 4 – Rumba, bottom two, survived
    S14, week 6 – Jive, bottom two eliminated

    • Rob

      Great stats James – thanks for sharing. All we have seen so far is Charlotte walking through her CCC in training. We should get a training VT on the Strictly website later this evening. I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t look awkward and ungainly dancing it.

  2. Steve Curran

    Seems to be Brian vs Chizzy

    Chizzy out

    • Rob

      Pre-show I had expected them to try and protect Chizzy. But as soon as she danced from the coffin slot, and was given such a tough critique and poor score, you knew she was right in the firing line for the bottom 2.

      She would likely have survived vs Charlotte but the judges played it fair saving Brian who out-scored her on the night. Charlotte was as wooden and hopeless as expected. She really dodged a bullet.