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Jive Tanking?

Oct 21, 2016 by

Jive Tanking?

A crossbar job for Anastacia 3rd elimination backers last week (advised at 9-4) as she survived the dance-off up against Naga.

It came as a surprise when Naga managed to avoid the dance-off the previous week. She found herself 2nd last on the judges’ leaderboard, as she did again on Saturday, but it was Laura who was dragged down. This lulled me into thinking she had a good chance of avoiding the bottom 2 again.

This time, however, there was no escaping though you wondered if there was wiggle room for the judges to save her in a dance-off vs Anastacia. Len had scored them both the same so it would only have needed an about-turn from one of the other judges following the dance-off to create a cleverly contrived save of Naga.

One starts to wonder how much the Beeb spent securing Anastacia to take part in this series as she lives to fight another day, despite injury concerns and despite the Beeb having to fend off racism slurs on behalf of its viewers.

Anastacia may have a vote-winner up her sleeve this week as pro partner Brendan has been suffering with a chest infection and has been unable to train with her, with Gorka standing in. We don’t know whether Brendan will be fit to perform the routine with Ana tomorrow night. If Gorka stands in we have a precedent – series 9, week 9, when Brendan stood in for Robin Windsor, and Anita Dobson ended up eliminated that week.

Sinatra’s ‘My Kind Of Town’ seems a little slow for quickstep, but it is a classic tune and Ana should be capable of a decent routine as she has looked pretty good in training. She is also due a later slot in the running order.

Ed is being firmly kept on the comedy tracks with ‘(Is This The Way To) Amarillo’ for his AS. That probably tells us the prods. would like him to stick around for a while longer yet.

Lesley has put in some tremendous efforts this series for a 71-year-old, and viewers have shown their support so far. Gotan Project’s ‘Whatever Lola Wants’ sounds like a track more suited to an Argentine tango. If this is given an early slot, Lesley could be vulnerable and she was on second last on Saturday so might well find herself on early.

A jive to ‘Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy’ gives Judge Rinder the chance to ham it up but after performing 3rd last on Saturday he, too, looks at risk of an early slot.

Ed is being firmly kept on the comedy tracks with ‘(Is This The Way To) Amarillo’ for his AS. That probably tells us the prods. would like him to stick around for a while longer yet

Greg has had a baptism of fire in this series and it continues with the tough CCC. He will do well to match, or improve on last Saturday’s 28 for his salsa. ‘We Found Love’ is a good song choice at least and if nothing else Greg backers should be happy he is getting another difficult dance out of the way while there are still 11 celebs in the competition.

Once again, his price has drifted out to a very tempting 16-1 e/w, a fifth the odds 3 places. Fundamentally, his chance has not changed despite his yo-yoing odds. We are still waiting for his first 9 of the series and we are still waiting (and if you are a backer, hoping) for a ‘wow’ routine from him and Natalie, but there is time yet. All the messages so far have been, the show is firmly behind him and they would like to navigate him to the latter stages of the series. What happens then is anyone’s guess.

Come the crucial last few weeks leading into the final this year you sense it is largely going to be in the lap of TPTB in deciding who gets the chop and who they push to the final. Most revealing will be the song choices and how the dances land in these critical weeks.

The main concern for Greg backers is, now we will presumably have a 3-couple final, TPTB may prefer 2 guys in the final and one woman, rather than an all male final. And if they are going to go down the road of bigging up Ore as the main competition to Danny, it will be tough for Greg to oust either of them.

The Strictly market is very reactionary and Ore’s pimp-slotted jive has seen his price plummet to 4-1. Up until Ore’s tears in the last 2 weeks and 2 excellent routines by him, he had lost favour with the market. It was a brilliant jive though it did feel on the cards this would be a shining moment for him.

It could be tough for him to maintain such a high level and there still remain concerns about Ore’s votability, especially when it comes to the business end of this series. Craig going as far as to say Ore is the man to beat now in the competition was a bit of a stretch, and while he was awarded a series-best 39 for his jive, Danny can feel extremely hard done by he hasn’t received a single 10 so far despite 4 exemplary routines.

Ore has the waltz tomorrow night to ‘I Will Always Love You’ which should see him secure another high score while Danny has the dreaded rumba. It will be interesting to see if they score Danny harshly again and nit-pick, while scoring up Ore and eulogising him.

Among the women, Louise is maintaining a high standard each week but without any ‘wow’ factor. However, it does only need one routine set to the right music to light the touch paper. She also has rumba tomorrow night to ‘Always On My Mind’.

Daisy did a good job with her rumba last week and this week has the chance to sell the fun Charleston. Claudia has the samba to ‘Young Hearts Run Free’. This looks the sort of routine and song potentially given the pimp slot. If this comes to pass we may get another mini Claudia gamble forming.

Among the women, Louise is maintaining a high standard each week but without any ‘wow’ factor. However, it does only need one routine set to the right music to light the touch paper

Laura has the jive which is likely to prove a difficult fast Latin challenge for her once again. She has not looked convincing in training and if she isn’t afforded leaderboard protection it is easy to envisage her dropping down into the dance-off again.

Given the chance of a sympathy vote for Ana she makes no appeal to be the 4th elimination at 11-8. And with Ed having the window to entertain once again, and incorporate some lifts, he isn’t an appealing alternative at a best-priced 9-4.

Judge Rinder’s support feels like it has been on the wane since his high-water mark of week 1’s CCC.  While an early slot and middling scores could put him in danger, a jive is often a vote winner and his jive should trump Laura’s though Laura is due the later slot. Both could suffer in comparison to Ore’s defining moment last Saturday.

Along with Judge Rinder, Lesley and Laura look the other two to focus on if seeking some value. It is a week when we ideally need more intel on the night before being able to figure it out but pre-show the 14-1 Laura and 7-1 Lesley to be the 4th elimination certainly look too big to miss out on.

Coral have a ‘without Danny Mac’ market and Greg looks worth considering here at 8-1 e/w. This means you would get paid out at the place odds (8-5) if Greg at worst finishes 4th presuming Danny is still in the competition then. And if he finishes second to Danny in the final, you would collect on the 8-1. Given earlier Greg investments this won’t be added to the official portfolio.

This week’s songs and dances:

Anastacia and Brendan will be dancing the Quickstep to ‘My Kind of Town’ by Frank Sinatra
Claudia and AJ will be dancing the Samba to ‘Young Hearts Run Free’ by Candi Staton
Daisy and Aljaz will be dancing the Charleston to ‘Happy Feet’ by Manhattan Rhythm Kings
Danny and Oti will be dancing the Rumba to the Sam Smith version of ‘How Will I Know’
Ed and Katya will be dancing the American Smooth to ‘(Is This The Way To) Amarillo’ by Tony Christie
Greg and Natalie will be dancing the Cha Cha to ‘We Found Love’ by Rihanna featuring Calvin Harris
Judge Rinder and Oksana will be dancing the Jive to ‘Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy’ by The Andrews Sisters
Laura and Giovanni will be dancing the Jive to ‘Reet Petite’ by Jackie Wilson
Lesley and Anton will be dancing the Tango to the Gotan Project version of ‘Whatever Lola Wants’
Louise and Kevin will be dancing the Rumba to the Michael Buble version of ‘Always on My Mind’
Ore and Joanne will be dancing the Waltz to the Claudia Streza version of ‘I Will Always Love You’

Advised:

Laura – 4th elimination – 14-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power, Coral, Boylesports
Lesley – 4th elimination – 7-1 – 1pt win – Coral, BetVictor

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24 Comments

  1. Tim B

    Laura out of tonight’s Strictly due to injury and receives a bye to next week.

    http://www.tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/strictly-come-dancing/284279-strictly-come-dancing-2016-laura-whitmore-ankle-injury.html

    Will bets on her still stand?

    • Rob

      If the bookies are ‘fair’ stakes will be refunded, Tim. She is effectively a ‘non runner’ in the next (4th) elimination market. If they don’t refund it will be one for IBAS you should be confident about winning. Imagine the big firms will refund but given problems people had being paid out last week on, ‘That song was too big for you’ with Ladbrokes, never put anything past them.

  2. stoney

    Another early slot for greg :/

  3. stoney

    Tonight is going to be a test of Gregs support. Especially with no Laura.

  4. Rob

    Pretty confident Greg & Nat’s fans will help them avoid dance-off. Think it will more likely be Lesley vs Ana. Ed could be dragged into dance-off this week. Judge Rinder a little forgotten at the start.

  5. stoney

    Apparently Lesly out, Daisy saved in the same off. Greg lives to fight another day. He needs a moment next week. He’s gonna be trailing in the bottom 2 unless something clicks in the following weeks

    • Rob

      Result is confirmed by the official mole.

      Lesley vs Daisy with Lesley Out.

      A nice 7-1 winner for readers & stakes should be refunded on the Laura bet. She was effectively a non-runner. WH will be voiding on her; others should follow suit.

      • stoney

        Good shout there mate

      • Craig

        Great tipping, but if they refund on Laura won’t it mean that they’ve voided the whole elimination? Lets say that it was Anastacia who pulled out injured at 11/8. If they refunded those bets then this would obliterate their overround.

        • Rob

          There is a possibility some of the bookies will impose a ‘rule 4’ which will be a small deduction in your Lesley winnings due to Laura being a non-runner.

          Laura was priced in the 10-1 to 14-1 range. That would equate to a deduction of 5p in the £: http://www.bettingmad.com/rule4s.asp

      • James

        Hi Rob. Well done on another successful tip. FYI – Paddy Power are not voiding the Laura elimination bets as their terms & conditions advised ‘all in, run or not’

        • Tim B

          Anyone know what Coral are likely to do regarding this?

          • Steve

            Tim,

            Coral eventually got back to me and cited T&C regarding contestants in Reality TV programmes being non runners resulting in losses. Did you have any better luck??

          • Tim B

            Hi Steve, I’ve just submitted my claim to IBAS regarding the Laura bet. Rob believes it’s a very simple case that I’ll definitely win, so perhaps you should do the same? When I went back to the Coral shop (weeks ago), they were adamant they weren’t going to refund me.

        • Rob

          I would request proof on that, James. I don’t see any ‘all in run or not’ showing on their XF elimination market atm.

          All bookmakers should refund on Laura & settle Lesley winning bets with a rule 4 as long as they were pre-live show bets and not ‘live in-play’ when Laura wasn’t quoted in the newly-formed market.

          If PP cannot show you proof of ‘all in run or not’ with a screenshot of the market, I’d take it to IBAS.

          There is no ‘all in run or not’ showing on Coral’s XF elim market either, Tim, so I would expect a refund but you may have to fight your corner.

          • James

            Paddy Power have had a change of heart, and now voided the Laura elimination bets

          • Anonymous

            Am querying Coral as they have declared the Laura bet as a loss.

  6. M8

    When I found out about Laura’s bye, I had a strong suspicion Daisy would be in the dance off. I didn’t back her to be eliminated though despite her 25/1 shot because I knew she’d get saved by the judges considering she was doing Charleston.

    Shame about Greg, I think things are getting beyond him now, that 4 from Craig is a brutal score considering it’s week 5. I still think he’ll last a while but I’m struggling to justify him making the final now, especially if it’s a three couple finale.

    • Rob

      Keep the faith M8. All part of Greg’s ‘journey’ and a long, long way to go yet. He has got a lot of the worst dances out of the way. I think he can excel in ballroom yet and will come back strongly.

      While it’s tough for him as things stand, I wouldn’t write him off.

      • M8

        Will do Rob. I’d rather be in Greg’s position than the likes of Laura, Daisy and Claudia. They might get the scores but they don’t have the fanbase. Greg is in the opposite position and it’s a hell of a lot easier to improve your scores than improve your voting figures. I’m assuming Blackpool is in two weeks time. I’m hoping a standout dance there could prove to be the turning point.

  7. stoney

    Jesus christ Gregs getting thrown to the wolves with these dance selections. He’s gonna have another shocker this weekend with the rumba

    • Rob

      My initial thought too, stoney, but having seen him & Nat talking positively about it on this evening’s ITT, think he will likely negotiate it on an upward curve after the low point of the CCC.

      Decent music… fear not, he is being held up for a late run… admittedly a long way off the pace as things stand but hopefully it’ll turn out like the tortoise & the hare 🙂

      • stoney

        Hi Rob I went in with a 33/1 top up so lets hope they unleash him Saturday