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No More Debbie Downer

Oct 20, 2017 by

No More Debbie Downer

Running through the leaderboard maths last week suggests Davood probably came bottom of the public vote. If so, Simon would have needed at least 5 on the pv; Brian 4 – impressive numbers for both.

We obviously know Charlotte was lurking towards the bottom of the vote but it looks like there has to have been at least one more contestant in the bottom 3. It may well have been a case of very small differences in vote percentages between 6 or 7 of them at the bottom of the vote.

The big market move last week was the price crash on Gemma following her excellent paso. Foxtrot for her this week to a slowed down version of ‘Believe’ has looked good in training and should see her consolidate her ‘improvement’ narrative.

Gemma is still likely to have a few hiccups along the way. The biggest obstacle for her to overcome will be when she is tasked with samba, salsa and jive. She may well cope with them adequately enough; it is more that they are often lower scoring and always exposing of timing, technique and footwork.

Debbie looks in line for a good week dancing rumba which should suit her balletic moves down to the ground. Given the judges have nit-picked her and scored her harshly in the last two weeks, it looks more likely in the script for her to be trading in 8s and 9s.

Mollie should have a decent week too dancing a dreamy VW as she looks much more assured in hold. It will likely be in the script for Davood to be talked up and possibly over-scored for his jive after last week’s surprise bottom 2 appearance.

Debbie looks in line for a good week dancing rumba which should suit her balletic moves down to the ground

You wouldn’t have thought a paso would play to Joe’s strengths but Zoe Ball has certainly been keen to talk him up in this week’s ITT. Jonnie’s QS, which will see him use his blade, looks another one to be generously received and scored by the judges.

Susan had a crowd-pleasing QS in the pimp slot last week. CCC will be tough for her this weekend but you sense she has a lot of good will behind her and will likely go further in the competition than her dance ability merits. It is worth remembering Ed Balls last year was matched below 20 on his run to the last 6.

It is interesting to see Alexandra given another fast Latin in samba, following her jive. You could read this as the show getting her best dances out of the way early. This had started to look the possible pattern with Aston as well. But he has waltz this week and it will be interesting to see if the judges continue down the line of nit-picking his frame and footwork in ballroom.

Alexandra’s run of late running order slots is possibly a slight negative – she should, by the law of averages, be due some early r.o. slots further into the series – while the Daily Mail story this week about her being choreographed by Craig Revel-Horwood when she performed on the West End stage is certainly not beneficial. The ‘ringer’ tag is going to be hard for both her and Aston to overcome in this series.

Bruno will miss tomorrow night’s show, which could mean we are in line for more ties on the leaderboard. This would potentially help Ruth who, based on training footage of her samba, is going to be at the bottom of the leaderboard.

Brian has been trying to work the ‘we want to get to Halloween week’ angle. He has a ‘Hi-de-Hi!’-inspired jive to a classic Tom Jones track that does allow room for some ‘entertaining’ choreo. Brian also looks likely to get a later running order slot after r.o. positions of 2, 6, 6, 2.

Bruno will miss tomorrow night’s show, which could mean we are in line for more ties on the leaderboard

Simon, dancing Charleston to a classic Gene Kelly track, has a window to potentially charm viewers and receive a positive critique, and a focus on improvement, from at least Darcey and Shirley.

One of Simon, Brian or Ruth looks like leaving tomorrow night but pre-show this 4th elimination is too difficult to call.

This week’s songs and dances:

Alexandra and Gorka will dance the Samba to Shape Of You by Ed Sheeran
Aston and Janette will Waltz to Can’t Help Falling In Love by Elvis Presley (MREE Cover)
Brian and Amy will Jive to It’s Not Unusual by Tom Jones
Davood and Nadiya perform the Jive to Tell Her About It by Billy Joel
Debbie and Giovanni dance the Rumba to Baby Can I Hold You by Tracy Chapman
Gemma and Aljaz will perform a Foxtrot to Believe by Madilyn Bailey
Joe and Katya perform a Paso Doble to Diablo Rojo by Rodrigo y Gabriela
Jonnie and Oti dance the Quickstep to Part-Time Lover by Stevie Wonder
Mollie and AJ will perform a Viennese Waltz to Anyone Who Had A Heart by Cilla Black
Ruth and Anton dance the Samba to Love Is In The Air by John Paul Young
Simon and Karen will perform a Charleston to Fit As A Fiddle (And Ready For Love) by Gene Kelly
Susan and Kevin will Cha Cha to Shout Out To My Ex by Little Mix

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6 Comments

  1. Stoney

    Could be anyone going tonight. Im on Brian with a little bit riding kn Davood. 16/1 way too big for someone who finished bottom last week opening tonight’s show

    • Rob

      Yep, very open elim. Could still end up Simon vs Brian but both offered entertainment with their routines (while also sporting awful outfits). Even if it’s Brian vs Simon, Simon has a shot at surviving given Shirley is on his side & it should be 1-1 going to Shirley’s casting vote based on tonight’s scores.

  2. James

    Hi Rob. Here are a few thoughts I had after last night’s show.

    Alexandra’s running order position in the four weeks with a public vote have been 15/15, 13/14, 11/13 and 11/12. Could this be an indication that her PV is weaker than expected?

    The first male celebrity to score a ten in each of the previous six series has gone on to win the ‘top male’ market (Harry, Louis, Patrick, Simon, Jay, Ore)

    That was a masterclass on distraction technique from Anton. Would Ruth have avoided elimination dancing a samba with any other male professional?

    Both Dianne & Amy have placed outside the top ten in their first series, but should not be discouraged by this. Seven other female professionals had a similar outcome in their first series before returning for a second series.

    Flavia: 12th -> 2nd
    Ola: 11th -> 5th
    Aliona: 14th -> 2nd
    Iveta: 14th -> 7th
    Janette: 13th -> 5th
    Joanne: 11th -> 1st
    Oti: 14th -> 2nd

    • Rob

      Many thanks for this, James. Intriguing stats, once again. Joe certainly seems to have a fair degree of producer favour atm. Do think that is one of the most preposterous 10s I’ve ever seen awarded on the show – Donny Osmond, anyone 😉

    • Tim B

      Sometimes I’ve wondered if Alexandra’s running orders are to do with putting her on during the X Factor overlap, meaning fans of both shows would have to wait until she had performed before switching over.