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Sticking Your Ore In

Dec 8, 2016 by

Sticking Your Ore In

It’s the Strictly semi-final on Saturday night and with a dance-off confirmed who is in most danger of falling at the final hurdle?

The series stats suggest Ore. He has been in two dance-offs, in week 7 (salsa, 3/9) and last week (foxtrot, 1/5). Claudia has been in one, in week 9 (jive, 1/7) while Danny and Louise arrive at the semi-final stage unscathed.

Two dances allows the judges to cleverly direct the public vote. Last year, Katie and Anita were left adrift at the bottom of the leaderboard and duly ended up in the dance-off while Jay, Georgia and Kellie all enjoyed higher scores for their second dances, including all being awarded 10s.

As much as the combined totals matter, the scoring and judge feedback for the second dance is going to be key in terms of who the show is potentially targeting for the dance-off. Louise looks capable of a top notch tango, for instance, whereas the samba has looked troublesome for her in training. Louise backers will be hoping she gets the samba out of the way first.

If Ore dances the quickstep first, that leaves the Argentine tango for him to impress with second time around. This would appear the more likely order for him with Ore long overdue a late slot in the running order. In the last 5 weeks Ore has danced 3/9, 4/8, 2/7, 2/6, 1/5.

Louise looks capable of a top notch tango whereas the samba has looked troublesome for her in training. Louise backers will be hoping she gets the samba out of the way first

Danny had the pimp slot last week; Claudia the week before and Claudia has danced after Louise in the last 2 weeks. The law of averages suggests Ore might be in line for the pimp slot on Saturday night, with Louise possibly dancing later than Claudia.

Early training analysis by Ian Waite this week on ITT has hinted that Danny’s salsa might not be the roaring success of his samba 2 weeks ago. But his American Smooth could be his 2nd dance and give him the chance to impress more with that.

A quickstep for Ore in the first round of dances would likely mean Claudia dancing the rumba first up with her quickstep to follow. Last week Claudia enjoyed her first 10 of the series, from Bruno, but this was a noticeably subdued affair with the other judges sticking firmly to awarding her 9s.

The choice of Kylie’s ‘Can’t Get You Out Of My Head’ initially raised eyebrows but there is a tango version to this song which could be a triumph

Claudia’s early training VTs haven’t especially impressed with either dance and after two late slots in the last two weeks (6/6, 4/5) she may well find herself opening the show. On paper, she looks the most likely contestant to be propping up the leaderboard and staring down the barrel of being in the dance-off.

We might expect to see predominantly 8s for Claudia’s rumba, 9s for her quickstep. Louise might find she receives only 8s (or, whisper it, even a 7 from Craig) for her samba but could potentially grab some 10s for her tango.

If Ore does get the pimp slot for his AT this could be slated for some 10s. The choice of Kylie’s ‘Can’t Get You Out Of My Head’ initially raised eyebrows but there is a tango version to this song which could be a triumph:

For Ore to have a chance of defeating Louise on the pv they are going to have to massively fanfare him on the night and with Ore’s family flying in for the show, this might well be in the script.

Might they even place him top of the leaderboard? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility. If you buy into the theory there could well be a concerted effort to get Ore to the final on Saturday, it follows that Louise is more under threat than Danny of joining Claudia in the dance-off.

If you have followed the series-long betting advice here, it looks a wise move to take out an insurance policy on Louise being eliminated. The view here is, Claudia is much more likely to miss out on the final but stranger things have happened in Strictly dance-offs and it is wise to play it safe.

Ladbrokes have some semi-final specials markets and there looks to be some value lurking there.

Advised:

Louise to be eliminated – 16-1 – 2pt win – Paddy Power, bet365
Louise & Claudia dance-off – 4-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes
semi-final combined lowest scorer – Claudia – 2pt win – 6-4 – Ladbrokes
semi-final combined highest scorer – Ore – 1pt win – 8-1 – Ladbrokes

This week’s dances and songs:

Claudia and AJ will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Bleeding Love’ by Leona Lewis and the Quickstep to ‘When You’re Smiling’ by Andy Williams
Danny and Oti will be dancing the Salsa to the track ‘Vivir Mi’ Vida by Marc Anthony and the American Smooth to ‘Misty Blue’ by Dorothy Moore
Louise and Kevin will be dancing the Samba to ‘Brazil’ by Thiago Thomé and the Tango to ‘Glad All Over’ by the Dave Clark Five
Ore and Joanne will be dancing the Quickstep to ‘Are You Gonna Be My Girl?’ by Jet and the Argentine Tango to ‘Can’t Get You Out of My Head’ by Kylie Minogue

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18 Comments

  1. Steve

    As much as I’m convinced Louise is heading for the final and possibly the win, I see your point in covering her being eliminated. I too believe that Ore is far more likely than Claudia to get the third spot and am wondering whether it might be a good idea to have nibble at an each way bet for him while he is currently 28/1.

    If the final is Ore, Louise and Danny and dead heat rules apply then I’m hoping a combination of Ore top man and Ore w/o Danny should produce a win either way if played correctly

    • Steve

      sorry 25/1 – blame my fat fingers

      • Steve

        It’s still showing on Oddschecker with Skybet but not on the app now. Shame

        • Rob

          Hi Steve. Yeah, it doesn’t look like that e/w offer exists with Skybet. Another way to play it IF you think Ore will make the final, is back him to be Top Male at 10-1, and back him in the ‘without Danny Mac’ market, also 10-1. So if Louise or Claudia win, you will collect the TM under dead-heat rules, & if Danny wins, you collect on the w/o Danny market under dead-heat rules. So, say £20 on both bets, £40 invested. You would get half your stake at 10-1 guaranteed IF Ore makes the final (I think). £110 return for a £40 stake? So basically a 7-4 winner.

  2. James

    Hi Rob

    I agree that the Argentine Tango gives Ore an excellent chance to impress & progress. Of the 20 previous occasions that male celebrities performed the AT, eight of them received more than one ‘10’ from the judges, and only two were eliminated.

    Ladbrokes have added a market on how many 10’s Craig will award in the semi-final. In the previous 13 series’ Craig has issued the following number of 10’s in the semi-final: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.

    So history would suggest that one ‘10’ is the likeliest outcome, and the most obvious candidates to receive this would appear to be Danny’s AS or Ore’s AT.

    Incidentally, of the nine celebrities who received a Craig semi-final ‘10’, eight successfully went on to make the final, however only one (Caroline Flack) eventually won the series.

  3. M8

    Never thought I’d ever say it but for my bank balance’s sake here’s hoping Ore has a successful Saturday. If he doesn’t…well I’ll have to satisfy myself with Joanne’s sour face on the Sunday night results show.

  4. M8

    Just watched the show and the judge largely did their job especially regarding Ore. Could have done without that 10 Len gave to Claudia. Fingers crossed Ore and Danny get the votes and we get our desired dance off.

    • Rob

      I think a Lou vs Cloudier dance-off is on the cards. Hoping they contrive a Lou save but they might play it by the book & if they do it’s looking hard for Lou – entirely up to Len, I predict.

      • M8

        Monitoring the ST on DS, strong rumour that Ore is safe and Danny is the first person in the danceoff. Unconfirmed but I hope people took the advice given to cover Louise. She could be toast.

  5. Rob

    DS spoiler says:

    DO – Claudia vs Danny

    Claudia out!

    A return to form this week 🙂 Operation save Ore was the right call. 8-1 Ore top score landed. Claudia lowest score landed as a dead-heat at 6-4. Be interesting to see how the market reacts. Danny likely to drift. And Louise will be backed in.

    • M8

      A very profitable night but wow, I’m really surprised and a little annoyed that Louise has beaten Danny on the public vote. She was first to perform and very unmemorable. Where are all her votes coming from? There’s a good chance she’ll go into the final as the favourite now. The only female in the final, a strong public vote and the Kevin to finally win bandwagon in full swing. Next week just got a little more difficult to predict in terms of Louise v Danny.

  6. James

    There are only five combinations of the PV that would have led to last night’s dance-off

    1st Louise, 2nd Claudia, 3rd Ore, 4th Danny
    1st Louise, 2nd Ore, 3rd Claudia, 4th Danny
    1st Ore, 2nd Louise, 3rd Claudia, 4th Danny
    1st Louise, 2nd Ore, 3rd Danny, 4th Claudia
    1st Ore, 2nd Louise, 3rd Danny, 4th Claudia

    So in each instance, Louise and Ore received more votes than Danny last night.

    The strength of Louise’s PV was put to the test last night for the first time, and she passed with flying colours.

    • Tim B

      Thanks James. Seems like Ore will have to be kept green going into the final then, with a little bit of momentum on his side.

      • M8

        To be honest Tim I think Ore is an absolute cert for a third place right now. I expect the public will rally behind Danny when he appears in the dance off tonight. I think he was hampered last night by Claudia’s scoring, a lot of people were angry over her being apparently underscored and I think they assumed Danny would be through and gave their votes to Claudia instead. He’s the best dancer and the only one not partnered by a Clifton. While I think he could definitely fall into the same trap as Natalie Gumede, finishing in the dance off in the semi finals and ultimately coming second despite being the best dancer, I can’t see Ore getting more votes than him next week with it being solely decided by the public vote. Louise is a different story though. Last night proved she has a very strong public vote, she also won’t perform first next week. Right now, I call her the favourite. I’ll be shocked if Ore doesn’t come in third.

        • Tim B

          There is only one part to the final on Saturday, although it is 135 minutes long. Has it been confirmed that someone will definitely be eliminated in third place yet?

          • Rob

            It’s still not entirely clear, Tim, but 1 show & 3 dances for all 3 couples as stated here on the BBC Strictly site, suggests to me, we’ll have all 3 couples standing there at the end of the show waiting to hear who has won:

            Tess Daly and Claudia Winkleman invite you to join them for the Strictly Come Dancing grand final. The three remaining couples perform three dances as they battle to be crowned champions of Strictly 2016. They have to deliver a spectacular showdance and reprise one of their routines from the series, chosen by the judges. In a final bid for viewer votes, each couple performs the routine they hope will secure them victory.

            While the judges comment on and score the performances, it is for guidance only as it’s all down to the viewers’ vote to decide who will be the winning couple.

            Plus a performance from Emeli Sande, the Strictly celebrities of 2016 return for one last group performance, and Strictly says goodbye to head judge Len Goodman in the most spectacular fashion.

          • Tim B

            That’s interesting…so if Louise ends up winning then Top Male could end up being settled as a dead heat.

  7. Tim B

    Strictly Come Dancing 2016 songs and dances – Week 13 / The FINAL!

    Show dances

    Ore and Joanne will be performing a Showdance to “I Got Rhythm” by George and Ira Gershwin

    Danny and Oti will be performing a Showdance to “Set Fire To The Rain” by Adele

    Louise and Kevin will be performing a Showdance to “One Moment in Time” by Whitney Houston

    Favourite dances

    Ore and Joanne’s Favourite Dance will be a Jive to “Runaway Baby” by Bruno Mars

    Danny and Oti’s Favourite Dance will be a Samba to “Magalenha” by Sergio Mendes

    Louise and Kevin’s Favourite Dance will be an Argentine Tango to “Tanguera” by Sexteto Mayor

    Judges’ choices TBC