Sticking Your Ore In
It’s the Strictly semi-final on Saturday night and with a dance-off confirmed who is in most danger of falling at the final hurdle?
The series stats suggest Ore. He has been in two dance-offs, in week 7 (salsa, 3/9) and last week (foxtrot, 1/5). Claudia has been in one, in week 9 (jive, 1/7) while Danny and Louise arrive at the semi-final stage unscathed.
Two dances allows the judges to cleverly direct the public vote. Last year, Katie and Anita were left adrift at the bottom of the leaderboard and duly ended up in the dance-off while Jay, Georgia and Kellie all enjoyed higher scores for their second dances, including all being awarded 10s.
As much as the combined totals matter, the scoring and judge feedback for the second dance is going to be key in terms of who the show is potentially targeting for the dance-off. Louise looks capable of a top notch tango, for instance, whereas the samba has looked troublesome for her in training. Louise backers will be hoping she gets the samba out of the way first.
If Ore dances the quickstep first, that leaves the Argentine tango for him to impress with second time around. This would appear the more likely order for him with Ore long overdue a late slot in the running order. In the last 5 weeks Ore has danced 3/9, 4/8, 2/7, 2/6, 1/5.
Louise looks capable of a top notch tango whereas the samba has looked troublesome for her in training. Louise backers will be hoping she gets the samba out of the way first
Danny had the pimp slot last week; Claudia the week before and Claudia has danced after Louise in the last 2 weeks. The law of averages suggests Ore might be in line for the pimp slot on Saturday night, with Louise possibly dancing later than Claudia.
Early training analysis by Ian Waite this week on ITT has hinted that Danny’s salsa might not be the roaring success of his samba 2 weeks ago. But his American Smooth could be his 2nd dance and give him the chance to impress more with that.
A quickstep for Ore in the first round of dances would likely mean Claudia dancing the rumba first up with her quickstep to follow. Last week Claudia enjoyed her first 10 of the series, from Bruno, but this was a noticeably subdued affair with the other judges sticking firmly to awarding her 9s.
The choice of Kylie’s ‘Can’t Get You Out Of My Head’ initially raised eyebrows but there is a tango version to this song which could be a triumph
Claudia’s early training VTs haven’t especially impressed with either dance and after two late slots in the last two weeks (6/6, 4/5) she may well find herself opening the show. On paper, she looks the most likely contestant to be propping up the leaderboard and staring down the barrel of being in the dance-off.
We might expect to see predominantly 8s for Claudia’s rumba, 9s for her quickstep. Louise might find she receives only 8s (or, whisper it, even a 7 from Craig) for her samba but could potentially grab some 10s for her tango.
If Ore does get the pimp slot for his AT this could be slated for some 10s. The choice of Kylie’s ‘Can’t Get You Out Of My Head’ initially raised eyebrows but there is a tango version to this song which could be a triumph:
For Ore to have a chance of defeating Louise on the pv they are going to have to massively fanfare him on the night and with Ore’s family flying in for the show, this might well be in the script.
Might they even place him top of the leaderboard? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility. If you buy into the theory there could well be a concerted effort to get Ore to the final on Saturday, it follows that Louise is more under threat than Danny of joining Claudia in the dance-off.
If you have followed the series-long betting advice here, it looks a wise move to take out an insurance policy on Louise being eliminated. The view here is, Claudia is much more likely to miss out on the final but stranger things have happened in Strictly dance-offs and it is wise to play it safe.
Ladbrokes have some semi-final specials markets and there looks to be some value lurking there.
Louise to be eliminated – 16-1 – 2pt win – Paddy Power, bet365
Louise & Claudia dance-off – 4-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes
semi-final combined lowest scorer – Claudia – 2pt win – 6-4 – Ladbrokes
semi-final combined highest scorer – Ore – 1pt win – 8-1 – Ladbrokes
This week’s dances and songs:
Claudia and AJ will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Bleeding Love’ by Leona Lewis and the Quickstep to ‘When You’re Smiling’ by Andy Williams
Danny and Oti will be dancing the Salsa to the track ‘Vivir Mi’ Vida by Marc Anthony and the American Smooth to ‘Misty Blue’ by Dorothy Moore
Louise and Kevin will be dancing the Samba to ‘Brazil’ by Thiago Thomé and the Tango to ‘Glad All Over’ by the Dave Clark Five
Ore and Joanne will be dancing the Quickstep to ‘Are You Gonna Be My Girl?’ by Jet and the Argentine Tango to ‘Can’t Get You Out of My Head’ by Kylie Minogue