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Honey Trapped?

Nov 22, 2016 by

Honey Trapped?

In a rare act of compassion Syco decided against an Emily vs Ryan sing-off in this series. The possibility of this happening last weekend died as soon as it emerged Emily had been awarded the pimp slot.

While ‘It Must Have Been Love’ fell well below Week 4’s pimp-slotted ‘Creep’ the positives for Emily have been a run of advantageous running order positions in this series, and svengali Cowell inviting Emily into his inner sanctum at Sony HQ, dangling the carrot of pop stardom… as long as she does what she is told.

It was framed as Emily choosing to stick to the slowed-down lane but you have to think this was entirely Cowell’s decision. It remains problematic for Emily to continue along this path for the remainder of the series as watching her sing on Saturday was far from the melancholic beauty of ‘Creep’ and there was no escaping how deadly dull it all felt.

Two songs this Saturday and again we have been promised something uptempo from Emily which can either be viewed as a chance for her to triumphantly release the shackles or, to crash and burn and Cowell to hammer home the point she is better sticking to John Lewis-ing songs.

It was framed as Emily choosing to stick to the slowed-down lane but you have to think this was entirely Cowell’s decision

Matt had a return to form singing ‘Writing’s On The Wall’. He handled this difficult song very well and this series appears to be his for the taking. The only tiny doubt is the lack of a single pimp slot for him though it wasn’t until the last 5 stage last year that Louisa Johnson enjoyed the luxury of her first pimp slot with her second song of the night, ‘Jealous’. It will be interesting to monitor if this same pattern emerges on Saturday.

The show has treated poor Ryan with disdain throughout the lives, a bit like a cat playing with a half-dead mouse. There remained a fair chance Honey G might lose the sing-off as her appearance in the bottom 2 well and truly burst her bubble, and there was still the possibility Ryan might be saved with a view to a possible sing-off showdown with Emily the following week.

For those who took the advised 10-1 Honey G to be eliminated pre-show, she traded as low as 3 on Betfair in-running so there was a good opportunity to close out the bet for a guaranteed profit.

As it turned out it was Ryan who left the show and with great dignity on Sunday night. His presence on the lives can only be viewed as one Syco hoped to milk in terms of his relationship with Emily without going so far as have the two lovebirds sing-off against each other.

Maybe Emily remained too high in the vote for a take-down. Maybe Cowell had a change of heart and is keener to have Emily in the final unsullied – in other words, without a sing-off appearance. Whichever way you try and interpret it, it looks good news for Emily’s final prospects now and she looks the value in the ‘without Matt Terry’ market.

5 After Midnight were far from note perfect once more attempting ‘Try A Little Tenderness’ but again the show succeeded in ramping them enormously post-song. Name-checked as potential recording artists, the signs are clear they are wanted as a finalist this year.

While Saara’s rendition of ‘My Heart Will Go On’ was fine, her styling was odd and her VT stressed her foreign status. You get the feeling the show has her exactly where they want her in the vote and given her series-long treatment she seems a less likely finalist compared to Matt, Emily and 5 After Midnight.

It is more a question of how the next 2 weeks play out. Honey G is a busted flush now and without a mega-ramp for her and a dismantling of someone’s vote outside of Saara, it is hard to see how she escapes the sing-off again.

The fact it did not go to deadlock on Sunday also suggests she was bottom of the vote. No doubt Simon would have loved to look a paragon of fairness sending it to deadlock but Dermot tellingly went to him first so it was left to his henchman Louis to deliver the killer blow to Ryan.

A Honey G vs Saara sing-off would be an hysterical mis-match but this could be on the cards. Presuming Honey G then exits the competition, it would theoretically be very easy to save whoever takes on Saara in a semi-final sing-off on the basis that would then be a fifth sing-off appearance by her, and a first for whoever she takes on.

A Honey G vs Saara sing-off would be an hysterical mis-match but this could be on the cards

You can never be entirely certain reading Syco’s plans as the non-happening Emily vs Ryan sing-off serves to show but this looks the most likely sequence of events as things currently stand.

Should Honey G end up eliminated on Sunday night this will see the advised pre-lives bet on her to be Top Over at 15-8 (4pt win) bite the dust. Frustrating as this has looked a winner-in-waiting pretty much series-long.

If you have not covered on Saara yet, rather than back her at a best-priced 8-13 to be Top Over, the better value stake saver would be to back Honey G to be next eliminated, available at time of writing at 8-11.

In terms of the first mentor to lose all acts market, Sharon looks the value here. We have to anticipate an Over leaving the show on Saturday which will see those odds shorten ahead of the semi-final.

Keep an eye on Comments for an update following the song reveal later this week, when we will find out the ‘Louis Loves’ in store.

Advised:

First mentor to lose all acts – Sharon – 7-4 – 2pt win – Coral

Without Matt Terry – Emily – 9-4 – 2pt win – Coral, William Hill

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5 Comments

  1. Rob

    Initial assessment of this week’s song choices:

    Matt Terry will be singing Little Mix’s Secret Love Song, PT. II for Louis Loves, and his own choice of song – Sia’s Alive.

    The LM track seems a rather dull choice but Sia’s Alive give room for more of a Matt moment. At this stage, with 2 songs, it is much more about the 2nd song choice on the night & I’d expect the Sia track to be Matt’s 2nd song. Will be interesting to see if this is given the pimp slot, as was the case with Louisa at this stage last year.

    Emily Middlemas will be singing Britney Spears’ Toxic for Louis Loves, and her own choice of song – Rag ‘N’ Bone Man’s Human.

    Again, the RAG ‘N’ Bone Man track doesn’t look the best choice but ‘Toxic’ certainly does, so would expect to hear ‘Toxic’ 2nd. This was promised in week 1 before the last minute about turn. Expect to see Emily pull out her guitar for this & a track that could provide a moment for her.

    Honey G will be singing two mash-ups! Can’t Touch This / Super Freak (MC Hammer / Rick James) for Louis Loves, and her own choice of songs – Push It / Black Beatles (Salt-N-Pepa / Rae Sremmurd).

    2 tracks very much in Honey’s wheelhouse and talk of her doing a mannequin challenge with the judges. Does the show want her to make the semi-final or is this a feel-good farewell for the rapper?

    Saara Aalto will be singing ABBA’s The Winner Takes It All for Louis Loves, and her own choice of song – a mash-up of Diamonds are Forever and Diamonds Are a Girl’s Best Friend (Shirley Bassey / Marilyn Monroe).

    The Winner Takes It All led Robbie Williams to say he was bored listening to her perform it at Judges’ Houses – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVGTW7mHzQ4

    And her other song ‘mix’ looks like it could easily be criticised for being too cabaret. Saara looks in trouble with these choices.

    5 After Midnight will be singing Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars’ Uptown Funk for Louis Loves, and their own choice of song – a mash-up of Sorry and One Dance (Justin Bieber/ Drake).

    The latter was 5am’s song at the audition stage. Both these choices look good for the boys.

    Pre-show it points to a Saara vs Honey G sing-off, & Honey G may well have been bottom of the pv last week so has ground to make up.

    Would Sharon abstain as she mentors both acts? If she does, Honey will need to win a 2-1 judges’ verdict. XF has jumped the shark in the past with sing-offs and Honey G beating Saara 2-1 would be right up there.

    If Sharon saves Honey G, this will point us in the direction of a 2-2, and a deadlock, & if we see Honey G ramped tomorrow night, it might be being done with a view to getting her vote above Saara’s so she can be saved on deadlock.

    The value bet looks to be to back Saara to be in the bottom 2.

    Advised:

    Saara – to be in the bottom 2 – 8-11 – 5.5pt win – William Hill

  2. stoney

    I think Honey survives one more week.
    Think saaras time is up this weekend.

  3. Rob

    ‘You can never be entirely certain reading Syco’s plans…’ was written here last week. And that well and truly came home to roost last night.

    Having advised Saara at 8-11 pre-show to be in the bottom 2, she was backed in to 2-5. At time of writing, you can back Saara at over 4-1 to be in the bottom 2. Such is the volatility following last night.

    When the r.o. for the 1st round of songs was revealed by Dermot, my thinking was: This all makes perfect sense. This will likely follow the pattern at the same stage last year with Matt (in the Louisa role) going on to enjoy a first pimp slot with his 2nd song. Saara, singing 2nd, will likely sing 1st in the 2nd round of songs, following the same pattern of 4th Impact, and is being targeted for the bottom 2 and possible elimination.

    All of this thinking went out the window after Saara enjoyed huge fanfare for The Winner Takes It All. Later, it was revealed Matt would sing 1st with his 2nd song, & it became apparent Saara had the pimp slot for her 2nd song.

    It was as if the show was cocking a snook at professional analysers of the show. What with the stage invasion following Honey G’s 1st song it turned into a very unexpected evening.

    You have to now be concerned regarding Matt’s treatment. Not a single pimp slot, a 2nd song last night that rather put him away & didn’t show him in his best light, & Saara suddenly being acclaimed as the best singer in the competition and the one to beat.

    Personally, being risk averse, after Saara’s treatment following her 1st song I was happy to rapidly reverse a 3k red I had on her, before her odds tumbled shorter and shorter on the night.

    It certainly wasn’t something I anticipated & there were still plenty of mixed signals amid the Saara ramp, especially following her pimp-slotted 2nd song which was described as cheesy, and was followed by plenty of distracting chat including Louis imploring all of Finland to vote.

    Emily’s 2 songs failed to hit the target on the night. ‘Toxic’ didn’t really work with her ukelele, and she didn’t have the vocal power to do ‘Human’ justice. Nicole was still asking for more but there was also plenty of positive feedback.

    5 After Midnight enjoyed a backing track for Uptown Funk which was laughable to watch as they essentially mimed their way through it. Their 2nd song was less successful.

    Honey G looks doomed. It is hard to see her not being bottom of the public vote but who joins her in the bottom 2 is hard to call. You could make a case for all the other acts being in danger including Saara.

    Looking further ahead it is very difficult right now to work out how it will play out but Matt is looking a vulnerable odds-on shot.

    With Emily likely enjoying more Scottish votes following Ryan’s exit, she is probably safe. The massive Saara ramp suggests the producers want to keep her clear of the bottom 2.

    It could well be between Matt and 5am as to who joins Honey G in tonight’s sing-off. Gun to head, the call here is 5am surviving tonight’s sing-off vs Honey G.

    • stoney

      I’m hoping to turn things around from last night and have backed 5am to fall into the bottom 2. My thinking is its between them and Emily but really think Emily has a strong support from Scotland. The same powerful support that kept bailing Ryan out in the fkash votes